October 10


Holiday City South | Q3 2020 Market Report

By Ken Jones

October 10, 2020

55+ Adult Communities, Adult Communities, Buy, Buyer, Holiday City South, Market Reports, Sale Prices, Sales Reports, Sell, Seller

Holiday City South is the 2nd newest of the 5 sections that make up the greater Holiday City at Berkeley 55+ adult community.

You can click here to learn more about Holiday City South.

holiday city south

Holiday City South Market Overview

In general, the level of market activity tends to rise and fall throughout a typical year.

The annual pattern is that there's more "foot traffic" (the number of bodies out looking) in the late winter through mid spring, which lowers somewhat and levels off from July through August, then increases during September through late October before slowing until late January to early February when the cycle repeats itself.


Interestingly, while the volume of foot traffic varies greatly throughout a typical year, the actually number of sales doesn't tend to fluctuate as dramatically. This is because there are more "lookers" than buyers out earlier in the year, but the number of actual buyers is reasonably consistent throughout most of the typical year.

Holiday City South - Q3 2020 vs Q3 2019

About the Data Used

The sale data in the following chart was taken from the Monmouth-Ocean Regional Multiple Listing Service (MLS).

Keep in mind, that not all homes are sold through the MLS. About 3% are sold between family members or friends, another 5% are sold directly by builders, and about 2% are sold without a real estate agent. These percentages are reflective of data published by the National Association of REALTORS®.

The sales data included in the typical MLS represents about 90% of all home sales and closer to 95% of all sales considered to be "arm's length" which represents what type of sale most home sellers will encounter. 

The Market Data

The following chart compares the 3 most important categories that provide insight into the strength of a residential market area:

  • The Number of Homes Sold, meaning the number of sales that actually transferred from seller to buyer;
  • Days on Market - meaning, the average number of days between the day a home was put on the market and the day a buyer contracted to buy it; and
  • The Average Sale Price, being the amount homes in this market sold for, on average, during the quarter.
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Click on Chart to Enlarge

Data for Holiday City South is in the top yellow row.

Holiday City South Market Data Analysis

As we can see, there were 5 fewer home sales in Holiday City South in Q3 2020 than in Q3 2019. But, when considering the unusual market conditions we've experienced in 2020 from the impact of the COVID-19 issue, this slight decline in the number of sales is of no significance.

However, the 28.57% decline in the number of Days on Market, from an average of 57 days in Q3 2019 to an average of 41 days in Q3 2020 is quite significant. And, the primary cause for this very steep drop is the direct result of fewer homes being available for sale during Q3 2020 than there were during Q3 2019.

Why were there fewer homes for sale during Q3 2020 than during Q3 2019?

Well, there's really no hard independent data that gives us an answer to that question. But, I can tell you from my own experience of being out in the market every day, that many homeowners throughout the area, both in and outside of the adult communities, have decided to stay in-place due to their uncertainty about where they would go and the conditions they might have to deal with in the process of selling and moving.

Is there an upside to this unusually low amount of homes for sale?


The upside is that if a homeowners decides to sell while the inventory of available homes remains low, you're likely to sell your home for significantly more than you would in a "normal" inventory situation.

This opinion is borne out by looking at the Average Sale Price in Q3 2020 which is almost 10% higher (9.38% higher to be exact) than the Average Sale Price in Q3 2019. This is ABOUT DOUBLE the normal annual rate of price increase for Holiday City South.

Price Influence of Renovated Homes

Because the age of the homes in Holiday City South average about 35 years, they've reached the point where the original features are no longer considered attractive or desirable to the current crop of home buyers.

holiday city south

Consequently, the homes in this section are very attractive to builders who buy, renovate, and resell them. And, because the sale prices of these newly renovated homes are substantially higher than the sale prices of homes that have not been renovated, to include the sales prices of the renovated homes in the sales study gives a misleading indication of the average sale price.

For example, in Q3 2020, 15 (or 33.33%) of the 45 sales in Holiday City South were sales of renovated homes. The average sale price of the renovated homes in Q3 2020 was $256,447 while the average sale price of the non-renovated homes was $183,830 almost 30% less (28.32% less, to be precise).

In Q3 2019, 14 (or 28.00%) of the 50 sales were sales of renovated homes. The average sale price of the renovated homes in Q3 2019 was $226,721 while the average sale price of the non-renovated homes was $176,965; almost 22% less (21.95% less, to be exact).


There is continual buyer demand for homes in Holiday City South. And, based on my experience and observation, it's my opinion, that this continual buyer demand is largely driven by people who buy the renovated homes in this section.

However, home sellers should be cautious of 2 significant issues:

1. Don't try to sell a non-renovated home anywhere near the typical prices being paid for renovated homes. And,

2. Not to sell your home for LESS than it's actually worth merely because your home isn't renovated.

Have any Questions?

Contact me if you have any questions about the information in this article. I'd be happy to discuss anything you may want more information about.

If you're thinking of selling, now or in the near future, let me give you my professional opinion of the probable selling price you could get for your property. I'll provide you with the most current sales and all of the existing homes you'll be competing against for your buyer.

By the way, in addition to being a professional New Jersey real estate sales professional since 1971 (click here to see my professional credentials), I've also sold real estate in Ocean County and lived in Berkeley Township since the early 1970s.

I've been a resident of Holiday City South for several years, and even sold my mom her Lakeview in Holiday City South when it was new in 1985. In fact, my sister still lives in that home.

I'm not a "high-pressure" guy.

We can chat. And, I'll give you some information that will certainly be helpful to you in weighing your decision.

In the worst case - we become friends.

Contact me, anytime. I look forward to hearing from you.

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