Residential Sales Market Like An Old Joke (But, not funny)
Back in the late 1970’s during the (disastrous) Carter administration, the residential real estate brokerage business was like a bad roller coaster ride, only with very few small ups and many serious declines.
Anyway, during the depths of that (not so) “great” recession, interest rates were in the 16-18% range, and sales were very few and far between; pretty much like now. And, there was a joke going around those of us committed, full-time real estate brokers that went like this:
In June a mortgage rep went into a broker’s office and asked him if he had any deals that the rep could provide mortgage financing for. The broker, looking down at his desk and shaking his head replied, “I only had one deal this month, and the guy has his own financing.” With that, the mortgage rep bid the broker farewell saying, “I’ll stop back next month.”
The next month, in July, the mortgage rep came back, as promised, and asked the broker if he had any deal that he needed financing for. The broker, again looking down at his desk and shaking his head, said, “This month was even worse than last month.” So, the rep again bid the broker farewell saying, “I’ll stop back next month.”
The next month, in August, the mortgage rep came back again, as promised, and asked the broker if he had any deal that he needed financing for. The broker, again looking down at his desk and shaking his head, said, “This month was even worse than last month.” With this, the rep said, “I think you’re pulling my leg. Last month you didn’t have any deals at all. So, how can this month be worse than last month?” The broker, looking up at the rep with a sad look on his face, replied, “Remember that deal I had back in June . . .?”
Back to today’s dilemma, I was speaking to a few super agents I’ve known for over 30 years who work in the central New Jersey market (Middlesex, Union County areas). A couple of them are people who work for the largest independent brokerage in Middlesex County, who were born and raised in the local communities, are very high profile and have very strong community ties for decades.
Last week, one of these folks told me, that business is the worst he’s ever seen. He went on to say, that worse than the current situation, he doesn’t see any reason to believe there will be an improvement at any time in the future. He says, people are losing their jobs, those that have them are afraid to make a move for fear they won’t have a job to support a move, and they don’t want to wind up like others they know who are losing their homes as a result of losing their jobs. This is from a guy whom I’ve always regarded an eternal optimist.
Day before yesterday, the other person told me, “It’s so bad, I had one sale in November and it hasn’t closed yet.” He went on to explain, “I haven’t had to advertise to promote myself in the last 15 years. But, things are so bad, I’m taking out ads in local weekly’s to remind people I’m still here and want their business.” He went on to say, he, too, saw nothing in the present state of the general economy that makes him hopeful that sales will increase at any time in the future.
Yet, a third person, an active full-timers who’s owned his own brokerage in the same exact location in an historically very desirable and very active real estate area since 1969 has averaged less than 1 sale per month over the last 6 months. He, too, is convinced, that there will be no increase in sales until and unless people start to feel more confident about their economic future. He believes that “justified fear” is causing people to stand still and protect what they have, and preventing them from making any moves.
Well, folks, I hope that those of you who voted for “Hope & Change” are willing to understand, that the federal government cannot either create jobs or spend our way out of this negative economic circumstance.
Frankly, there’s been plenty of “Change” under the new administration (and, none of it good), but there doesn’t seem to be much “Hope.”
